The total number of global 5G users reached 1.7 billion in the first quarter (Q1) of 2024 with 160 million subscriptions added during the three-month period as mid-band 5G furthered its dominance while legacy networks saw further decline. Also, for the first time, 97% percent of all user activities were recorded to have taken place on 5G mid-band service on a leading operator’s network, Ericsson Mobility Report June 2024 states.
5G network user base is claimed to explode to 5.6 billion in 2029 marking 60% of the total mobile subscribers. Among the regions, North America will occupy the highest 5G penetration in 2029 at 90% followed by the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) at 89%. Likewise, in Sub-Saharan Africa, the 5G user base could surpass 320 million accounting for 28% of all mobile subscriptions. Check out: 5G network in Nepal with Availability
In 2023, North America accounted for the highest 5G subscription at 59%. In North East Asia, the figure stood at 41% and GCC represented 34%. Western Europe accounted for 26% of 5G subscriptions. 5G subscriptions increased by 16 million in Q1 2024 reaching a global total of 1.7 billion.
| 5G subscription | 2023 (in million) | Forecast for 2029 (in million) |
| North America | 257 | 430 |
| Latin America | 33 | 400 |
| Western Europe | 143 | 480 |
| India, Nepal, Bhutan | 119 | 840 |
| GCC | 26 | 81 |
| Sub-Saharan Africa | 11 | 320 |
4G base continues to decline
4G network subscriptions globally totaled 5.2 billion coming down by 26 million in Q1 2024. The report projects the 4G decline to decline to 3 billion by the end of 2029.
It’s the same with 3G. The third-generation cellular standard saw subscriptions fall by 37 million while another legacy network 2G had its subscription down by 41 million.
| 4G subscription | 2023 (in million) | Forecast for 2029 (in million) |
| North America | 170 | 50 |
| Latin America | 530 | 280 |
| Western Europe | 380 | 80 |
| India, Nepal, Bhutan | 740 | 410 |
| GCC | 46 | 6 |
| Sub-Saharan Africa | 330 | 440 |
Both 3G and 2G networks are seeing shutdown as telcos focus more on newer technologies such as 5G and 6G. However, the 3G/2G sunset depends on states, telcos, and government policies. While telcos will continue to end older networks, 2G will be utilized for the Internet of Things (IoT) devices.
So far in Q1 2024, 300 service providers launched commercial 5G services globally out of them 50% of deployments were 5G standalone (SA). Similarly, there are currently 830 4G network deployments worldwide with 346 upgraded to LTE-Advanced while 161 Gigabit enabled.
The smartphone market reviving, finally
After a dismal smartphone market for three years, new stats show that things are now improving. The report highlights that the global smartphone market saw a 6% year-on-year increase. The report also points to the increasing availability of AI-equipped smartphones in the market. That includes phones such as those in the Samsung Galaxy S24 series phones of course.
The market restoration also owes to vendors refreshing their offerings in mid and low-tier segments. At the same time, XR devices are expected to launch in 2024. The more powerful device launches are drawing more customers towards buying new devices in recent months.
5G SA devices are launching
5G phones are there but now, even the 5G standalone devices are now coming more into the market which offers more flexibility and network performance. Various devices already support 5G network slicing and those running on Android 13 and iOS 17 and above now have capabilities in apps that support particular conditions such as low latency or higher bandwidth.
RedCap or Reduced Capability is also gaining momentum as of Q1 2024. So, it’s a welcome sign for global 5G users as they get more capable devices in their hands.Check out: 5G SA vs NSA: How Each Deployment Differs, Pros and Cons
In terms of 5G speeds, there is more focus on uplink. The downlink section will have premium devices supporting 6 carrier aggregation (CA) in low and mid-bands in the next two years that will support 3.5 Gbps speeds. In 2024, FDD and TDD carrier aggregation will improve in flagship devices.
Narrowband non-terrestrial networks (NB-NTN) unlock new use cases such as asset tracking, remote monitoring, and emergency services. The device ecosystem around it is now integrating NB-NTN into systems-on-a-chip (SOCs) in 2024. The NB-NTN will first support text messaging and low-data-rate services.
5G NR-NTN feature in devices will start support in 2025. The 3GPP version of satellite calling will unite the industry, focusing development to a single standard that will benefit all the users who need communication in cellular dead zones.
Also read: Samsung announces two-way satellite connectivity for smartphones
Global mobile network data traffic
The monthly global data traffic reached 145 EB (exabyte) in Q1 2024. The soaring data consumption is attributed to rising smartphone usage and increased average data volume per subscription. Data is mostly consumed by video content.
To illustrate, in 2023, video traffic represented 73% of all global mobile data traffic. In Q4 2023, the data traffic was 135 EB per month.
5G data traffic to reach 75% in 2029
5G will represent 75% of data traffic in the mobile industry in the next 5 years. By 2029, it’s expected that mobile data traffic will reach 131 EB per month in 2029 excluding the data traffic generated by Fixed Wireless Access (FWA). Including the FWA data traffic, the figure would rise to 466 EB per month by the same year.
5G accounted for 25% of mobile data traffic in 2023 marking an increase of 17% from 2022. It’s now projected to reach 75% in 2029. The report owes it to migration to newer technologies in India, Latin America, South East Asia, and Africa as well as smartphone shipment development, XR, AR tools, etc.
Mobile data growth per smartphone among the regions
Among the regions, India, Nepal, and Bhutan consumed 29 EB data traffic per active smartphone a month in 2023 which is expected to increase to 68 EB per month in 2029 marking a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 15%.
North America will see a jump from 19 EB to 59 EB during the same period with 21% CAGR growth in 2029. Sub-Saharan Africa’s mobile data traffic is expected to rise from 5 EB monthly in 2023 to 20 EB monthly in 2029.
Video consumption, AR, VR, MR, and other new data-heavy applications are expected to drive up mobile data traffic during the forecasted period.
Find out: 5.5G network, features, Speed: 2024 Update
Time-to-Content user experience boost on mid-band 5G
Time-to-content is related to playing video content on the internet. It’s the measurement of the time between when a user clicks and the point at which a video starts playing or the web page loads. It has become one of the metrics to assess user experience as video streaming apps become a major use case.
A leading telco also found that 97% of user activities on 5G mid-band achieved a time-to-content of below 1.5 seconds.
As 5G data becomes more relevant for video consumption, time-to-content takes more profound space in talks of quality of service (QoS). User expectations is profoundly high when they are connected to a 5G network and want to watch high-quality videos.
The figure below illustrates that on mid-band 5G networks, 97% of users achieved a time-to-content of below 1.5 seconds. On low-band 5G, 67% of users received the same while on 4G LTE networks, it was just 38%.
Large regional variations in 5G coverage
Mid-band combines high capacity with good coverage and is available in most markets, making it an ideal choice for delivering the full 5G experience.
Combined with a low-band frequency division duplex (FDD) 5G carrier, it can provide full coverage and mobility.
Mid-band 5G grows momentum
The mid-band 5G continues to be more popular than other variations in most markets. At the end of 2023, the 5G mid-band population covered 35% barring those in mainland China.
In Latin America and the Middle East as well as Africa, mid-band 5G coverage reached 10%. The Asia-Pacific region (APAC) region outside China now stands at 20% in 5G user coverage. In Europe, the mid-band 5G coverage is at 30%.
However, most European countries have seen deployment of low-band 5G networks. Among the Asian states, India is one of those with the most mid-band 5G deployments with 90% population coverage at the end of 2023. Check out: Frequency bands in India for 2G, 4G, 5G
North American mobile network operators (MNOs) have launched 5G across all bands with low-band status reaching 85% in 2023. Check out: How to check 4G and 5G band support in your phone?
As 5G continues its growth trajectory firm in place, older networks will see their sunset soon. How much data do you use in a day? Do share with us in our comments below.
